10/30/10
That is all about to change.
If the Republicans do as well on Tuesday as nearly everyone predicts, it is the Blue Dog Democrats that will suffer the most, while the Republican party will have a third faction - the anti-government Tea Party. Whether the Democrats retain control of the Senate or Republicans sweep the close elections and take power back, neither side will have the votes to pass any kind of sweeping legislation. The Republicans will have a large block in both houses that is unwilling to compromise, even within their own party. Candidates like Marco Rubio in Florida and Sharron Angle in Nevada are ideological purists with strong bases of public support that will continue to urge them to remain firm on their principles. And they are not alone - in House races and Senate races as well as numerous contests for statewide office, anti-
government Tea Party candidates with vocal public support are going to take office. Meanwhile, Democrats will lose their most conservative members, leaving the remainder of Congressional Dems in much closer agreement on a variety of issues. It is the moderate Republicans, the RINO's, who will hold the balance of power in the next Congress and in many state houses across the country.
Is this the start of a permanent revolution, realignment within the parties? It happens generationally, that the two parties flip on a key issue. In the 60's it was civil rights, and it happened again in the mid to late 80's with working class social conservatives. In recent years, fiscal conservatives have been reexamining their relationship with the Republican party while the Democrats have grown more concerned about the deficit and corporate tax policy. If the Tea Party winners align themselves with elements of the social conservatives, fiscal conservative and socially liberal Republicans could find themselves more at home in the new Democratic party. On the other hand, if the Marco Rubio and Sharron Angles refuse to budge in any direction, they could find themselves shutout of the process on several levels. Unable to deliver on their promises, their followers could grow disillusioned and reject them in the election cycles to follow.
Winning the election is the easy part. The hard part is governing.
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