All told, 33 seats will be contested next time around, and 22 of those are held by Democrats or independents who caucus with Democrats. This gives the Republicans, who only need to pick up 4 seats to reclaim the majority in the Senate, a wide list of targets and we can expect some hard fought campaigns. Of the 33 seats, the four that were won by the smallest margins are all in the hands of Democrats, if we count Lieberman as a member of the party. Let's take a look at the retirements so far and at some other seats where retirement is a strong possibility.
Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson ran for governor in 2010 but was easily defeated in the primary by incumbent Rick Perry. She had intended to resign her senate seat if she won the primary and plenty of Republicans will be interested now that she is actually done. In a state that last voted for the Democrat nominee for president in 1976, the only fireworks here will be in the primary unless the Tea Party manages to push another Christine O'Donnell. Still, Hutchinson's retirement is bad news for the Democrats on at least one front. Although she supported numerous restrictions on abortion, Hutchinson has long held that Roe v Wade was correctly decided and that abortion should remain legal. A more socially conservative senator will be a more active voice in blocking judicial nominations should Obama win a second term.
The news from North Dakota is grim for the Democrats. Kurt Conrad was a popular senator in this bright red state and the Democrats have no top tier candidates that can step in and mount a serious campaign. His retirement gives the GOP a virtual lock on the seat.
In Connecticut, Lieberman has lost nearly all of his personal goodwill and would have been the loser in a three way race for the seat. His retirement means that whoever wins the nomination for the Democrats will coast to victory in a mirror image of the North Dakota election. A three way race with Lieberman siphoning off votes from the Democrat was the Republicans only realistic chance at picking up the seat, and even then it was a long shot.
One of the closest elections in 2006 was in Virginia, where Jim Webb narrowly edged out incumbent George Allen while Obama claimed the Old Dominion for the Democrats for the first time since 1964. Webb has not yet said whether or not he will run for reelection, but in the last few days Allen has announced that he will try to recapture his old seat. Although many believe that Webb was not planning to run again, there's a strong feeling that he would relish another campaign against Allen so this may increase the chances of him trying for a second term.
In Hawaii, another deep blue state, Senator Akaka could sleepwalk to another term, which might just happen since the senator will be 88 years old in 2012. If he decides to step down, the Democrats have a deep bench and the only likely challenger is outgoing Republican Governor, Linda Lingle. Unless the Democrat spends the entire campaign surfing in Waikiki, this will stay a blue seat.
The Democrats best chance to pick up a seat is in Massachusetts where Scott Brown, elected in a special election to replace Senator Kennedy, is already up for reelection. His Democrat rival in the special election may as well have been surfing in Waikiki and Brown captured a seat that Democrats believed was theirs by birthright. This will be fiercely contested in 2012 and if Brown wants to hold on to the seat he's going to have to spend much of the next two years publicly and loudly supporting and voting with the President. And if he does that, he won't survive a primary challenge.
Nevada may offer Democrats a decent shot at a gain as well, if Senator Ensign runs again. Ensign has been dogged by scandal and the state has suffered more than most from the economic downturn. On the other hand, the top tier Democrats in Nevada have all taken beatings of their own recently so it's not clear who would step up to the plate. Furthermore, the Silver State has been losing population in its urban centers (read: Las Vegas) and could end up voting Republican almost reflexively if the economic situation doesn't improve.
Over in the House, it's too soon to speculate on possible retirements. No high profile member has said they will step down so all we can do is talk about it in the abstract. With a large advantage in current seats, Republicans have good reason to feel confident about holding on to a majority. This confidence is bolstered by shifts in demographics that will end up taking seats away from blue states and giving them to red states (although those same demographic shifts may explain Democratic successes in Nevada, Virginia and North Carolina), and by strong showings in state houses across the country, giving Republicans the power in a redistricting year. On the other hand, the midterm electorate tends to be older, whiter and more conservative. If Obama wins a second term in office it will be in part due to rallying a younger, more diverse and more liberal block of voters, which will not bode well for Republicans in heavily contested races.
